How much biofuel is it feasible to produce sustainably? Part 1: The IEA Report (2008)

How much is it possible to cultivate?

The IEA (2008) Report is very useful on this, as it provides the findings of multiple studies simultaneously. It showed that the calculated amount of biofuel that will be feasible to produce sustainably varied greatly among studies, reflecting on the large uncertainty levels of the issue.

The lowest value was 8 EJ/yr, assuming only the currently-available marginal land was cultivated; 33 EJ/yr by 2050 was another estimate, assuming that only industrial and agricultural wastes are used, without dedicating land specifically for biofuel production. The most optimistic was 1500 EJ/yr, assuming that 72% of the current agricultural land area can be utilized for biofuels through an increase in cultivation intensity. This represents the meeting of 6-300% of the total energy demands of 2007, or 4.5-200% of the projected demands in 2050. IEA (2008) suggests this is overly ambitious for most countries due to the present lack of the technology required to convert so much biomass to fuel in most countries, even if the production efficiency does increase enough to allow producing so much biomass.

It was found that at present, Brazil has most potential for this conversion due to the extensive underutilized pastures and the appropriate technology already present for biofuel production. Other countries, such as Tanzania, Cameroon, India and Thailand have good potential in the future, but investments in technology would still be needed to ensure agricultural efficiency. Improvements in efficiency are expected to free up land for sustainable biofuel production, which would not put major pressures on food cultivation or the environment. The fact that technological investment will be needed is problematic for immediate large-scale expansion in biofuel cultivation, as 70% of expansion potential is found in the developing or emerging countries. This suggests either that 1) significant economic inputs from the developed countries is needed, which would not be economically-attractive for them, or 2) that large-scale biofuel cultivation should not be applied just yet until this technology becomes available in the aforementioned countries. This is in agreement with the conclusion of Claire Melamed in the video from an earlier post.