Blog conclusions: Part 1

It is now time to answer the ultimate blog question: are biofuels a potential way ahead or a blind alley?

After learning more about biofuels, I have concluded that they do seem to be a viable solution, where even if they will likely not solve all of our energy need and GHG emission problems on their own, they may be a way ahead. However, there are many problems with biofuels too, having huge uncertainties regarding how beneficial they will be in practice. This has certain implications on employing biofuels. These are the conclusions I made, based on what I have learnt about biofuels during the course of writing this blog.

Lessons learnt from the past regarding the present and future of biofuels:

1. Firstly, it is important to remember that the impacts of biofuels depend on when, where and how they are produced, meaning that case-specific assessments should be made on this prior to employing biofuels in an area.

2. Secondly, it seems that a large amount of research and development is needed for some biofuels, such as those made from algae.

3. Thirdly, the technology and infrastructure needs to be built to start using these biofuels.

4. Fourthly, economic development is required in the majority of the areas where the biofuel potential is highest to enable construction of the infrastructure needed.

5. The fifth lesson is that political changes also need to be made, where a switch from large-scale industrial biofuel production to smallholder-owned farm cultivation is advisable to ensure biofuel sustainability. All these changes are likely to require time and if we do not act swiftly enough, any salvation which biofuels may offer may arrive too late for it to have a significant effect on tackling global climate change. If we act too fast, before these changes are able to take place, on the other hand, the negative impacts of industrially-produced biofuels sometimes currently observed, may become the norm, meaning that biofuels will cause more problems than they mitigate.

6. This gives rise to the sixth lesson, which is that while the R&D, the economic and the political changes should be hurried, large-scale biofuel expansion should not take place until these changes are sufficient to enable sustainable production. This suggests that biofuels are likely to be more of a medium-term solution.

7. However, this does not mean that some biofuels, which are known to be beneficial at present and the infrastructure for which can be readily introduced, can not be employed now. This is the seventh lesson. These biofuels include those that are already produced sustainably in areas such as Brazil, as well as the biofuels that can be derived from agricultural, forestry and urban wastes. The latter, for example, are likely to result in much greater emissions savings than many other 1^st and 2^nd generation biofuels and have a lower uncertainty levels, making them viable even now.